Paju Citizen 2–2 Sangju Sangmu FC: Result & Stats

Paju Citizen

AET

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sangju Sangmu FC

Unknown 120+2' (pen), 93'

Jung Ho-Young 23'

Moon Jin-Yong 117' (OG)

Kim Gyeong-Min 90+4'

3/9/2022

FA Cup · 2nd RoundPaju Public Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Paju Citizen47%

×Draw24%

Sangju Sangmu FC29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paju CitizenExpected goals in this matchSangju Sangmu FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.23

Paju Citizen

1.65

Sangju Sangmu FC

1.23

Paju Citizen creates 34% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

2.29

creates per match

1.60

0.86

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Paju Citizen

2.29

Sangju Sangmu FC

1.60

allows per match

Paju Citizen

0.86

Sangju Sangmu FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paju Citizen+0.00on par

Sangju Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paju Citizen ↓

Sangju Sangmu FC →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Paju Citizen or draw

71%

Paju Citizen or Sangju Sangmu FC

76%

Draw or Sangju Sangmu FC

53%

Winning margin

Paju Citizen wins by 2+

25%

Sangju Sangmu FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Paju Citizen 1+ goals

81%

Paju Citizen 2+ goals

49%

Paju Citizen 3+ goals

23%

Sangju Sangmu FC 1+ goals

71%

Sangju Sangmu FC 2+ goals

35%

Sangju Sangmu FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Paju Citizen (draw refunded)

62%

Sangju Sangmu FC (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Paju Citizen at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Sangju Sangmu FC away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Paju Citizen attack 2.29 + Sangju Sangmu FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Sangju Sangmu FC attack 1.60 + Paju Citizen defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Paju Citizen scores more

47%

level

24%

Sangju Sangmu FC scores more

29%

Paju Citizen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Paju Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

Jung Ho-Young

75'

D. Kim

90+4'

Kim Gyeong-Min

93'

117'

Moon Jin-YongOwn goal

120+2'

Penalty

120+3'

Missed penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff