Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Paju Citizen vs Namyangju — FA Cup 2019

Paju Citizen
Paju Citizen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Namyangju
Namyangju
3/9/2024FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundPaju Auxiliary Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Paju Citizen54%
×Draw21%
Namyangju25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paju Citizen
2.15
Namyangju
1.43

Paju Citizen creates 50% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Paju Citizen
2.29
Namyangju
2.00

allows per match

Paju Citizen
0.86
Namyangju
2.00

finishing

Paju Citizen+0.00on par
Namyangju+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paju Citizen ↓

Namyangju →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Paju Citizen or draw
75%
Paju Citizen or Namyangju
79%
Draw or Namyangju
46%

Winning margin

Paju Citizen wins by 2+
32%
Namyangju wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Paju Citizen 1+ goals
88%
Paju Citizen 2+ goals
63%
Paju Citizen 3+ goals
36%
Namyangju 1+ goals
76%
Namyangju 2+ goals
42%
Namyangju 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Paju Citizen (draw refunded)
68%
Namyangju (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paju Citizen at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Namyangju away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paju Citizen attack 2.29 + Namyangju defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.15

Namyangju attack 2.00 + Paju Citizen defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Paju Citizen scores more
54%
level
21%
Namyangju scores more
25%

Paju Citizen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Paju Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Paju Citizen 2–1 Namyangju

Paju Citizen beat Namyangju 2-1 in FA Cup on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Paju Auxiliary Field in Paju.