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Paju Citizen vs Mokpo City — K3 League 2026

Paju Citizen
Paju Citizen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mokpo City
Mokpo City
11/11/2023K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 30Paju Public Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Paju Citizen43%
×Draw27%
Mokpo City29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paju Citizen
1.35
Mokpo City
1.06

Paju Citizen creates 27% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 111 away

creates per match

Paju Citizen
1.23
Mokpo City
1.13

allows per match

Paju Citizen
1.00
Mokpo City
1.47

finishing

Paju Citizen+0.00on par
Mokpo City+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paju Citizen ↓

Mokpo City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Paju Citizen or draw
71%
Paju Citizen or Mokpo City
73%
Draw or Mokpo City
57%

Winning margin

Paju Citizen wins by 2+
20%
Mokpo City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Paju Citizen 1+ goals
74%
Paju Citizen 2+ goals
39%
Paju Citizen 3+ goals
15%
Mokpo City 1+ goals
65%
Mokpo City 2+ goals
29%
Mokpo City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Paju Citizen (draw refunded)
60%
Mokpo City (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paju Citizen at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.00 · 57 matches

Mokpo City away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.47 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paju Citizen attack 1.23 + Mokpo City defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.35

Mokpo City attack 1.13 + Paju Citizen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Paju Citizen scores more
43%
level
27%
Mokpo City scores more
29%

Paju Citizen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Paju Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paju Citizen vs Mokpo City

Mokpo City beat Paju Citizen 1-0 in K3 League on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Paju Public Stadium in Paju.