Paju Citizen 0–1 Busan Transportation

Paju Citizen

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Busan Transportation

E. Ji 21'

Kim Min-jae 81'

6/15/2025

K3 League · Round 13Paju Public Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Paju Citizen38%

×Draw28%

Busan Transportation34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paju CitizenExpected goals in this matchBusan Transportation

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.15

Paju Citizen

1.23

Busan Transportation

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 105 away

1.22

creates per match

1.32

0.98

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Paju Citizen

1.22

Busan Transportation

1.32

allows per match

Paju Citizen

0.98

Busan Transportation

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paju Citizen+0.00on par

Busan Transportation+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paju Citizen ↓

Busan Transportation →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Paju Citizen or draw

66%

Paju Citizen or Busan Transportation

72%

Draw or Busan Transportation

62%

Winning margin

Paju Citizen wins by 2+

16%

Busan Transportation wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Paju Citizen 1+ goals

71%

Paju Citizen 2+ goals

35%

Paju Citizen 3+ goals

13%

Busan Transportation 1+ goals

68%

Busan Transportation 2+ goals

32%

Busan Transportation 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Paju Citizen (draw refunded)

53%

Busan Transportation (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paju Citizen at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

Busan Transportation away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.24 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paju Citizen attack 1.22 + Busan Transportation defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Busan Transportation attack 1.32 + Paju Citizen defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Paju Citizen scores more

38%

level

28%

Busan Transportation scores more

34%

Paju Citizen at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Paju Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

E. Ji

81'

Kim Min-jae

Paju

Busan

Manager: Lee Eun-No

Manager: Paik Ki-Hong