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Paiosaco vs Rápido Bouzas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Paiosaco
Paiosaco
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rápido Bouzas
Rápido Bouzas
10/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Campo Porta Santa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Paiosaco32%
×Draw29%
Rápido Bouzas39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paiosaco
1.05
Rápido Bouzas
1.18

Rápido Bouzas creates 12% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 75 away

creates per match

Paiosaco
0.87
Rápido Bouzas
1.12

allows per match

Paiosaco
1.23
Rápido Bouzas
1.23

finishing

Paiosaco+0.00on par
Rápido Bouzas+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paiosaco ↓

Rápido Bouzas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Paiosaco or draw
61%
Paiosaco or Rápido Bouzas
71%
Draw or Rápido Bouzas
68%

Winning margin

Paiosaco wins by 2+
12%
Rápido Bouzas wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Paiosaco 1+ goals
65%
Paiosaco 2+ goals
28%
Paiosaco 3+ goals
9%
Rápido Bouzas 1+ goals
69%
Rápido Bouzas 2+ goals
33%
Rápido Bouzas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Paiosaco (draw refunded)
45%
Rápido Bouzas (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paiosaco at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.23 · 62 matches

Rápido Bouzas away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paiosaco attack 0.87 + Rápido Bouzas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Rápido Bouzas attack 1.12 + Paiosaco defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Paiosaco scores more
32%
level
29%
Rápido Bouzas scores more
39%

Rápido Bouzas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rápido Bouzas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paiosaco vs Rápido Bouzas

Rápido Bouzas beat Paiosaco 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Porta Santa in A Laracha.