Paiosaco 0–0 Compostela: Result & Stats

Paiosaco

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Compostela

11/24/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Campo Porta Santa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Paiosaco24%

×Draw29%

Compostela48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PaiosacoExpected goals in this matchCompostela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

1.29

Paiosaco

0.82

Compostela

1.29

Compostela creates 57% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 32 away

0.87

creates per match

1.34

1.23

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Paiosaco

0.87

Compostela

1.34

allows per match

Paiosaco

1.23

Compostela

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paiosaco+0.00on par

Compostela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paiosaco ↓

Compostela →

0–012%

0–116%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Paiosaco or draw

52%

Paiosaco or Compostela

71%

Draw or Compostela

76%

Winning margin

Paiosaco wins by 2+

Compostela wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Paiosaco 1+ goals

56%

Paiosaco 2+ goals

20%

Paiosaco 3+ goals

Compostela 1+ goals

72%

Compostela 2+ goals

37%

Compostela 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Paiosaco (draw refunded)

33%

Compostela (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Paiosaco at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.23 · 62 matches

Compostela away — creates 1.34, concedes 0.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Paiosaco attack 0.87 + Compostela defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.82

Compostela attack 1.34 + Paiosaco defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Paiosaco scores more

24%

level

29%

Compostela scores more

48%

Compostela at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Compostela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff