Paiosaco 0–1 Bergantiños: Result & Stats

Paiosaco

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bergantiños

4/14/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 29Campo Porta Santa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Paiosaco26%

×Draw29%

Bergantiños45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PaiosacoExpected goals in this matchBergantiños

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.27

Paiosaco

0.90

Bergantiños

1.27

Bergantiños creates 41% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 44 away

0.87

creates per match

1.32

1.23

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Paiosaco

0.87

Bergantiños

1.32

allows per match

Paiosaco

1.23

Bergantiños

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paiosaco+0.00on par

Bergantiños+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paiosaco ↓

Bergantiños →

0–011%

0–115%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Paiosaco or draw

55%

Paiosaco or Bergantiños

71%

Draw or Bergantiños

74%

Winning margin

Paiosaco wins by 2+

Bergantiños wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Paiosaco 1+ goals

59%

Paiosaco 2+ goals

23%

Paiosaco 3+ goals

Bergantiños 1+ goals

72%

Bergantiños 2+ goals

36%

Bergantiños 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Paiosaco (draw refunded)

37%

Bergantiños (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Paiosaco at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.23 · 62 matches

Bergantiños away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Paiosaco attack 0.87 + Bergantiños defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.90

Bergantiños attack 1.32 + Paiosaco defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Paiosaco scores more

26%

level

29%

Bergantiños scores more

45%

Bergantiños at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bergantiños will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff