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Paiosaco vs Barco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Paiosaco
Paiosaco
CANC
00:00
Barco
Barco
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 34Campo Porta Santa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Paiosaco34%
×Draw28%
Barco38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paiosaco
1.15
Barco
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 78 away

creates per match

Paiosaco
0.87
Barco
1.21

allows per match

Paiosaco
1.23
Barco
1.42

finishing

Paiosaco+0.00on par
Barco+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paiosaco ↓

Barco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Paiosaco or draw
62%
Paiosaco or Barco
72%
Draw or Barco
66%

Winning margin

Paiosaco wins by 2+
14%
Barco wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Paiosaco 1+ goals
68%
Paiosaco 2+ goals
32%
Paiosaco 3+ goals
11%
Barco 1+ goals
70%
Barco 2+ goals
34%
Barco 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Paiosaco (draw refunded)
48%
Barco (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paiosaco at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.23 · 62 matches

Barco away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.42 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paiosaco attack 0.87 + Barco defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.15

Barco attack 1.21 + Paiosaco defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Paiosaco scores more
34%
level
28%
Barco scores more
38%

Barco at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Barco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Paiosaco host Barco

April 19, 2020: Paiosaco take on Barco in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Paiosaco host Barco at Campo Porta Santa.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.