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Paiosaco vs Alondras — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Paiosaco
Paiosaco
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Alondras
Alondras
9/10/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Campo Porta Santa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Paiosaco33%
×Draw29%
Alondras38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paiosaco
1.08
Alondras
1.19

Alondras creates 10% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 109 away

creates per match

Paiosaco
0.87
Alondras
1.15

allows per match

Paiosaco
1.23
Alondras
1.30

finishing

Paiosaco+0.00on par
Alondras+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paiosaco ↓

Alondras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Paiosaco or draw
62%
Paiosaco or Alondras
71%
Draw or Alondras
67%

Winning margin

Paiosaco wins by 2+
13%
Alondras wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Paiosaco 1+ goals
66%
Paiosaco 2+ goals
29%
Paiosaco 3+ goals
10%
Alondras 1+ goals
70%
Alondras 2+ goals
33%
Alondras 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Paiosaco (draw refunded)
46%
Alondras (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paiosaco at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.23 · 62 matches

Alondras away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.30 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paiosaco attack 0.87 + Alondras defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.08

Alondras attack 1.15 + Paiosaco defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Paiosaco scores more
33%
level
29%
Alondras scores more
38%

Alondras at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Alondras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Paiosaco 1–1 Alondras

Paiosaco and Alondras drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Porta Santa in A Laracha.