Paiosaco 1–1 Agrupación Estudiantil: Result & Stats

Paiosaco

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Agrupación Estudiantil

11/1/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Campo Porta Santa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Paiosaco45%

×Draw26%

Agrupación Estudiantil30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PaiosacoExpected goals in this matchAgrupación Estudiantil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.18

Paiosaco

1.50

Agrupación Estudiantil

1.18

Paiosaco creates 27% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 17 away

0.87

creates per match

1.12

1.23

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Paiosaco

0.87

Agrupación Estudiantil

1.12

allows per match

Paiosaco

1.23

Agrupación Estudiantil

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paiosaco+0.00on par

Agrupación Estudiantil+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paiosaco ↓

Agrupación Estudiantil →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Paiosaco or draw

70%

Paiosaco or Agrupación Estudiantil

74%

Draw or Agrupación Estudiantil

55%

Winning margin

Paiosaco wins by 2+

22%

Agrupación Estudiantil wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Paiosaco 1+ goals

78%

Paiosaco 2+ goals

44%

Paiosaco 3+ goals

19%

Agrupación Estudiantil 1+ goals

69%

Agrupación Estudiantil 2+ goals

33%

Agrupación Estudiantil 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Paiosaco (draw refunded)

60%

Agrupación Estudiantil (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Paiosaco at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.23 · 62 matches

Agrupación Estudiantil away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Paiosaco attack 0.87 + Agrupación Estudiantil defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.50

Agrupación Estudiantil attack 1.12 + Paiosaco defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Paiosaco scores more

45%

level

26%

Agrupación Estudiantil scores more

30%

Paiosaco at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Paiosaco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff