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Paide vs Nõmme United — Meistriliiga 2026

Paide
Paide
FT
7 – 2
HT: 5 – 0
Nõmme United
Nõmme United
9/14/2024MeistriliigaMeistriliiga · Round 27Paide linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Paide65%
×Draw19%
Nõmme United15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paide
2.22
Nõmme United
0.97

Paide creates 129% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 28 away

creates per match

Paide
2.19
Nõmme United
0.93

allows per match

Paide
1.01
Nõmme United
2.25

finishing

Paide+0.00on par
Nõmme United+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paide ↓

Nõmme United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Paide or draw
85%
Paide or Nõmme United
81%
Draw or Nõmme United
35%

Winning margin

Paide wins by 2+
42%
Nõmme United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Paide 1+ goals
89%
Paide 2+ goals
65%
Paide 3+ goals
38%
Nõmme United 1+ goals
62%
Nõmme United 2+ goals
25%
Nõmme United 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Paide (draw refunded)
81%
Nõmme United (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paide at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.01 · 131 matches

Nõmme United away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paide attack 2.19 + Nõmme United defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.22

Nõmme United attack 0.93 + Paide defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Paide scores more
65%
level
19%
Nõmme United scores more
15%

Paide at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Paide will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paide vs Nõmme United

Paide beat Nõmme United 7-2 in Meistriliiga on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Paide linnastaadion in Paide.