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Paide II vs Viimsi — Esiliiga A 2026

Paide II
Paide II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Viimsi
Viimsi
8/25/2024Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 25Paide linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Paide II24%
×Draw20%
Viimsi55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paide II
1.44
Viimsi
2.24

Viimsi creates 56% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 83 away

creates per match

Paide II
1.86
Viimsi
1.84

allows per match

Paide II
2.64
Viimsi
1.02

finishing

Paide II+0.00on par
Viimsi+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paide II ↓

Viimsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Paide II or draw
45%
Paide II or Viimsi
80%
Draw or Viimsi
76%

Winning margin

Paide II wins by 2+
11%
Viimsi wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Paide II 1+ goals
76%
Paide II 2+ goals
42%
Paide II 3+ goals
18%
Viimsi 1+ goals
89%
Viimsi 2+ goals
65%
Viimsi 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Paide II (draw refunded)
31%
Viimsi (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paide II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.64 · 64 matches

Viimsi away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.02 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paide II attack 1.86 + Viimsi defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.44

Viimsi attack 1.84 + Paide II defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Paide II scores more
24%
level
20%
Viimsi scores more
55%

Viimsi at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Viimsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paide II vs Viimsi

Viimsi beat Paide II 3-0 in Esiliiga A on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Paide linnastaadion in Paide.