Paide II 1–7 Tallinna Kalev II: Result & Stats

Paide II

FT

1 – 7

HT: 1 – 4

Tallinna Kalev II

10/15/2024

Esiliiga A · Round 33Paide linnastaadion kunstmuruväljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Paide II42%

×Draw20%

Tallinna Kalev II38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paide IIExpected goals in this matchTallinna Kalev II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

2.08

Paide II

2.19

Tallinna Kalev II

2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 55 away

1.86

creates per match

1.53

2.64

allows per match

2.53

creates per match

Paide II

1.86

Tallinna Kalev II

1.53

allows per match

Paide II

2.64

Tallinna Kalev II

2.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paide II+0.00on par

Tallinna Kalev II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paide II ↓

Tallinna Kalev II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Paide II or draw

62%

Paide II or Tallinna Kalev II

80%

Draw or Tallinna Kalev II

58%

Winning margin

Paide II wins by 2+

24%

Tallinna Kalev II wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Paide II 1+ goals

89%

Paide II 2+ goals

64%

Paide II 3+ goals

37%

Tallinna Kalev II 1+ goals

87%

Tallinna Kalev II 2+ goals

61%

Tallinna Kalev II 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Paide II (draw refunded)

53%

Tallinna Kalev II (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paide II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.64 · 64 matches

Tallinna Kalev II away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.53 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paide II attack 1.86 + Tallinna Kalev II defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.19

Tallinna Kalev II attack 1.53 + Paide II defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Paide II scores more

42%

level

20%

Tallinna Kalev II scores more

38%

Paide II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Paide II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff