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Paide II vs Narva U21 — Esiliiga B 2026

Paide II
Paide II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Narva U21
Narva U21
10/19/2025Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 32Paide linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Paide II46%
×Draw21%
Narva U2134%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paide II
2.16
Narva U21
1.84

Paide II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 45 away

creates per match

Paide II
2.32
Narva U21
1.64

allows per match

Paide II
2.05
Narva U21
2.00

finishing

Paide II+0.00on par
Narva U21+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paide II ↓

Narva U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Paide II or draw
66%
Paide II or Narva U21
79%
Draw or Narva U21
54%

Winning margin

Paide II wins by 2+
26%
Narva U21 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Paide II 1+ goals
88%
Paide II 2+ goals
63%
Paide II 3+ goals
36%
Narva U21 1+ goals
84%
Narva U21 2+ goals
55%
Narva U21 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Paide II (draw refunded)
58%
Narva U21 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paide II at home — creates 2.32, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

Narva U21 away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.00 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paide II attack 2.32 + Narva U21 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.16

Narva U21 attack 1.64 + Paide II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Paide II scores more
46%
level
21%
Narva U21 scores more
34%

Paide II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Paide II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga B: Paide II 1–1 Narva U21

Paide II and Narva U21 drew 1-1 in Esiliiga B on October 19, 2025.

The match was played at Paide linnastaadion in Paide.