Paide II 2–5 Maardu: Result & Stats | Esiliiga A

Paide II

FT

2 – 5

HT: 2 – 1

Maardu

K. Palumets 45'

J. Luts 13'

V. Gussev 88', 79'

V. Mihhailov 62'

K. Boldyrev 46'

I. Zelentsov 33'

8/14/2021

Esiliiga A · Round 16Paide linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Paide II31%

×Draw20%

Maardu50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paide IIExpected goals in this matchMaardu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

2.39

Paide II

1.86

Maardu

2.39

Maardu creates 28% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 35 away

1.86

creates per match

2.14

2.64

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Paide II

1.86

Maardu

2.14

allows per match

Paide II

2.64

Maardu

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paide II+0.00on par

Maardu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paide II ↓

Maardu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Paide II or draw

50%

Paide II or Maardu

80%

Draw or Maardu

69%

Winning margin

Paide II wins by 2+

15%

Maardu wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Paide II 1+ goals

84%

Paide II 2+ goals

55%

Paide II 3+ goals

28%

Maardu 1+ goals

91%

Maardu 2+ goals

69%

Maardu 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Paide II (draw refunded)

38%

Maardu (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paide II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.64 · 64 matches

Maardu away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paide II attack 1.86 + Maardu defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.86

Maardu attack 2.14 + Paide II defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Paide II scores more

31%

level

20%

Maardu scores more

50%

Maardu at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Maardu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

10'

13'

33'

38'

45'

46'

55'

57'

A. Shevchenko← D. Kovtun

57'

K. Vinogradov← V. Ogorodnik

62'

A. Aristov← D. Maksimenko

62'

V. Mihhailov

69'

S. Penu← K. Kauber

79'

V. Gussev

80'

A. Pankevitšjus← T. Bulavkin

88'

V. Gussev

89'

G. Ussov← R. Sobtšenko

Paide

Maardu

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: E. Kesküla

69'▲S. Penu←▼K. Kauber

Paide II substitutes

PenuHanson

Manager: A. Briaunys

57'▲A. Shevchenko←▼D. Kovtun

57'▲K. Vinogradov←▼V. Ogorodnik

62'▲A. Aristov←▼D. Maksimenko

80'▲A. Pankevitšjus←▼T. Bulavkin

89'▲G. Ussov←▼R. Sobtšenko

Maardu substitutes

ShevchenkoVinogradovAristovPankevitšjusUssovJakovlevTeleš

Esiliiga A: Paide II 2–5 Maardu

Maardu beat Paide II 5-2 in Esiliiga A on August 14, 2021.

Goals: J. Luts (13'), I. Zelentsov (33'), K. Palumets (45'), K. Boldyrev (46'), V. Mihhailov (62'), V. Gussev (79', 88').

The match was played at Paide linnastaadion in Paide.

Paide II vs Maardu — Esiliiga A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Esiliiga A: Paide II 2–5 Maardu