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Maardu vs Paide II — Esiliiga B 2026

Maardu
Maardu
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Paide II
Paide II
5/29/2025Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 13Maardu linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Maardu71%
×Draw16%
Paide II13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maardu
2.80
Paide II
1.16

Maardu creates 141% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

creates per match

Maardu
3.56
Paide II
1.32

allows per match

Maardu
1.00
Paide II
2.05

finishing

Maardu+0.00on par
Paide II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maardu ↓

Paide II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Maardu or draw
87%
Maardu or Paide II
84%
Draw or Paide II
29%

Winning margin

Maardu wins by 2+
50%
Paide II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Maardu 1+ goals
94%
Maardu 2+ goals
76%
Maardu 3+ goals
52%
Paide II 1+ goals
69%
Paide II 2+ goals
32%
Paide II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Maardu (draw refunded)
84%
Paide II (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maardu at home — creates 3.56, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Paide II away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maardu attack 3.56 + Paide II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.80

Paide II attack 1.32 + Maardu defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Maardu scores more
71%
level
16%
Paide II scores more
13%

Maardu at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Maardu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maardu vs Paide II

Maardu beat Paide II 3-0 in Esiliiga B on May 29, 2025.

The match was played at Maardu linnastaadion.