Paide II 3–2 Legion: Result & Stats | Esiliiga A

Paide II

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Legion

7/22/2023

Esiliiga A · Round 21Paide linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Paide II35%

×Draw20%

Legion45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paide IIExpected goals in this matchLegion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

2.25

Paide II

1.98

Legion

2.25

Legion creates 14% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 36 away

1.86

creates per match

1.86

2.64

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Paide II

1.86

Legion

1.86

allows per match

Paide II

2.64

Legion

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paide II+0.00on par

Legion+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paide II ↓

Legion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Paide II or draw

55%

Paide II or Legion

80%

Draw or Legion

65%

Winning margin

Paide II wins by 2+

18%

Legion wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Paide II 1+ goals

86%

Paide II 2+ goals

59%

Paide II 3+ goals

31%

Legion 1+ goals

89%

Legion 2+ goals

65%

Legion 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Paide II (draw refunded)

44%

Legion (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paide II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.64 · 64 matches

Legion away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.11 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paide II attack 1.86 + Legion defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.98

Legion attack 1.86 + Paide II defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Paide II scores more

35%

level

20%

Legion scores more

45%

Legion at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Legion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff