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Legion vs Paide II — Esiliiga A 2026

Legion
Legion
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Paide II
Paide II
10/7/2023Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 31Sportland Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Legion51%
×Draw19%
Paide II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legion
2.47
Paide II
1.86

Legion creates 33% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 63 away

creates per match

Legion
2.54
Paide II
1.97

allows per match

Legion
1.76
Paide II
2.40

finishing

Legion+0.00on par
Paide II+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legion ↓

Paide II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Legion or draw
71%
Legion or Paide II
81%
Draw or Paide II
49%

Winning margin

Legion wins by 2+
32%
Paide II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Legion 1+ goals
91%
Legion 2+ goals
70%
Legion 3+ goals
44%
Paide II 1+ goals
84%
Paide II 2+ goals
55%
Paide II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Legion (draw refunded)
63%
Paide II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legion at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.76 · 37 matches

Paide II away — creates 1.97, concedes 2.40 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legion attack 2.54 + Paide II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.47

Paide II attack 1.97 + Legion defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Legion scores more
51%
level
19%
Paide II scores more
29%

Legion at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Legion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: Legion 2–4 Paide II

Paide II beat Legion 4-2 in Esiliiga A on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Sportland Arena in Tallinn.