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Paide II vs Läänemaa Haapsalu — Esiliiga B 2026

Paide II
Paide II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Läänemaa Haapsalu
Läänemaa Haapsalu
6/29/2025Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 17Paide linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Paide II63%
×Draw17%
Läänemaa Haapsalu20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paide II
2.98
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.66

Paide II creates 80% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 37 away

creates per match

Paide II
2.32
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.27

allows per match

Paide II
2.05
Läänemaa Haapsalu
3.65

finishing

Paide II+0.00on par
Läänemaa Haapsalu+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paide II ↓

Läänemaa Haapsalu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Paide II or draw
80%
Paide II or Läänemaa Haapsalu
83%
Draw or Läänemaa Haapsalu
37%

Winning margin

Paide II wins by 2+
44%
Läänemaa Haapsalu wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Paide II 1+ goals
95%
Paide II 2+ goals
79%
Paide II 3+ goals
56%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 1+ goals
81%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 2+ goals
49%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Paide II (draw refunded)
76%
Läänemaa Haapsalu (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paide II at home — creates 2.32, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

Läänemaa Haapsalu away — creates 1.27, concedes 3.65 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paide II attack 2.32 + Läänemaa Haapsalu defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 2.98

Läänemaa Haapsalu attack 1.27 + Paide II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Paide II scores more
63%
level
17%
Läänemaa Haapsalu scores more
20%

Paide II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Paide II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paide II vs Läänemaa Haapsalu

Paide II beat Läänemaa Haapsalu 3-0 in Esiliiga B on June 29, 2025.

The match was played at Paide linnastaadion in Paide.