Paide II 3–3 JK Tabasalu: Result & Stats

Paide II

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

JK Tabasalu

11/4/2024

Esiliiga A · Round 35Paide linnastaadion kunstmuruväljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Paide II44%

×Draw20%

JK Tabasalu36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paide IIExpected goals in this matchJK Tabasalu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

2.04

Paide II

2.25

JK Tabasalu

2.04

Paide II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 36 away

1.86

creates per match

1.44

2.64

allows per match

2.64

creates per match

Paide II

1.86

JK Tabasalu

1.44

allows per match

Paide II

2.64

JK Tabasalu

2.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paide II+0.00on par

JK Tabasalu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paide II ↓

JK Tabasalu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Paide II or draw

64%

Paide II or JK Tabasalu

80%

Draw or JK Tabasalu

56%

Winning margin

Paide II wins by 2+

25%

JK Tabasalu wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Paide II 1+ goals

89%

Paide II 2+ goals

65%

Paide II 3+ goals

39%

JK Tabasalu 1+ goals

87%

JK Tabasalu 2+ goals

60%

JK Tabasalu 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Paide II (draw refunded)

55%

JK Tabasalu (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paide II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.64 · 64 matches

JK Tabasalu away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.64 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paide II attack 1.86 + JK Tabasalu defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.25

JK Tabasalu attack 1.44 + Paide II defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Paide II scores more

44%

level

20%

JK Tabasalu scores more

36%

Paide II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Paide II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff