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Paide II vs Flora II — Esiliiga A 2026

Paide II
Paide II
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Flora II
Flora II
10/25/2023Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 26Paide linnastaadion kunstmuruväljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Paide II28%
×Draw20%
Flora II52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paide II
1.68
Flora II
2.33

Flora II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 125 away

creates per match

Paide II
1.86
Flora II
2.03

allows per match

Paide II
2.64
Flora II
1.50

finishing

Paide II+0.00on par
Flora II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paide II ↓

Flora II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Paide II or draw
48%
Paide II or Flora II
80%
Draw or Flora II
72%

Winning margin

Paide II wins by 2+
13%
Flora II wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Paide II 1+ goals
81%
Paide II 2+ goals
50%
Paide II 3+ goals
24%
Flora II 1+ goals
90%
Flora II 2+ goals
67%
Flora II 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Paide II (draw refunded)
35%
Flora II (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paide II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.64 · 64 matches

Flora II away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.50 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paide II attack 1.86 + Flora II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.68

Flora II attack 2.03 + Paide II defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Paide II scores more
28%
level
20%
Flora II scores more
52%

Flora II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Flora II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paide II vs Flora II

Flora II beat Paide II 4-1 in Esiliiga A on October 25, 2023.

The match was played at Paide linnastaadion kunstmuruväljak in Paide.