Flora II 1–2 Paide II: Result & Stats | Esiliiga A

Flora II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Paide II

10/29/2024

Esiliiga A · Round 34Sportland Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Flora II53%

×Draw20%

Paide II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flora IIExpected goals in this matchPaide II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

1.70

Flora II

2.40

Paide II

1.70

Flora II creates 41% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 63 away

2.39

creates per match

1.97

1.43

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Flora II

2.39

Paide II

1.97

allows per match

Flora II

1.43

Paide II

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flora II+0.00on par

Paide II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flora II ↓

Paide II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Flora II or draw

73%

Flora II or Paide II

80%

Draw or Paide II

47%

Winning margin

Flora II wins by 2+

33%

Paide II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Flora II 1+ goals

91%

Flora II 2+ goals

69%

Flora II 3+ goals

42%

Paide II 1+ goals

82%

Paide II 2+ goals

51%

Paide II 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Flora II (draw refunded)

66%

Paide II (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flora II at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.43 · 125 matches

Paide II away — creates 1.97, concedes 2.40 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flora II attack 2.39 + Paide II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.40

Paide II attack 1.97 + Flora II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Flora II scores more

53%

level

20%

Paide II scores more

27%

Flora II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Flora II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff