Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Paide II vs Flora II — Esiliiga A 2026

Paide II
Paide II
CANC
10:00
Flora II
Flora II
6/26/2021Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Paide II29%
×Draw20%
Flora II51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paide II
1.71
Flora II
2.33

Flora II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 119 away

creates per match

Paide II
1.86
Flora II
2.03

allows per match

Paide II
2.64
Flora II
1.55

finishing

Paide II+0.00on par
Flora II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paide II ↓

Flora II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Paide II or draw
49%
Paide II or Flora II
80%
Draw or Flora II
71%

Winning margin

Paide II wins by 2+
14%
Flora II wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Paide II 1+ goals
82%
Paide II 2+ goals
51%
Paide II 3+ goals
24%
Flora II 1+ goals
90%
Flora II 2+ goals
67%
Flora II 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Paide II (draw refunded)
36%
Flora II (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paide II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.64 · 64 matches

Flora II away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.55 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paide II attack 1.86 + Flora II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.71

Flora II attack 2.03 + Paide II defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Paide II scores more
29%
level
20%
Flora II scores more
51%

Flora II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Flora II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Paide II host Flora II

June 26, 2021: Paide II take on Flora II in Esiliiga A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.