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Paide II vs Elva — Esiliiga A 2026

Paide II
Paide II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Elva
Elva
8/13/2023Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 23Paide linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Paide II37%
×Draw21%
Elva42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paide II
1.88
Elva
2.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 126 away

creates per match

Paide II
1.86
Elva
1.40

allows per match

Paide II
2.64
Elva
1.90

finishing

Paide II+0.00on par
Elva+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paide II ↓

Elva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Paide II or draw
58%
Paide II or Elva
79%
Draw or Elva
63%

Winning margin

Paide II wins by 2+
19%
Elva wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Paide II 1+ goals
85%
Paide II 2+ goals
56%
Paide II 3+ goals
29%
Elva 1+ goals
87%
Elva 2+ goals
60%
Elva 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Paide II (draw refunded)
47%
Elva (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paide II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.64 · 64 matches

Elva away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paide II attack 1.86 + Elva defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.88

Elva attack 1.40 + Paide II defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Paide II scores more
37%
level
21%
Elva scores more
42%

Elva at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Elva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paide II vs Elva

Elva beat Paide II 1-0 in Esiliiga A on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Paide linnastaadion in Paide.