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Elva vs Paide II — Esiliiga A 2026

Elva
Elva
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Paide II
Paide II
4/7/2024Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 5Nike Arena Elva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Elva48%
×Draw21%
Paide II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elva
2.18
Paide II
1.75

Elva creates 25% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 63 away

creates per match

Elva
1.96
Paide II
1.97

allows per match

Elva
1.53
Paide II
2.40

finishing

Elva+0.00on par
Paide II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elva ↓

Paide II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Elva or draw
68%
Elva or Paide II
79%
Draw or Paide II
52%

Winning margin

Elva wins by 2+
28%
Paide II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Elva 1+ goals
89%
Elva 2+ goals
64%
Elva 3+ goals
37%
Paide II 1+ goals
83%
Paide II 2+ goals
52%
Paide II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Elva (draw refunded)
60%
Paide II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elva at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.53 · 129 matches

Paide II away — creates 1.97, concedes 2.40 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elva attack 1.96 + Paide II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.18

Paide II attack 1.97 + Elva defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Elva scores more
48%
level
21%
Paide II scores more
32%

Elva at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Elva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: Elva 2–2 Paide II

Elva and Paide II drew 2-2 in Esiliiga A on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Nike Arena Elva in Elva.