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Pahang vs UiTM FC — Malaysia Cup 2019

Pahang
Pahang
CANC
13:00
UiTM FC
UiTM FC
11/12/2020Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pahang64%
×Draw20%
UiTM FC17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pahang
2.20
UiTM FC
1.02

Pahang creates 116% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

creates per match

Pahang
2.15
UiTM FC
0.50

allows per match

Pahang
1.54
UiTM FC
2.25

finishing

Pahang+0.00on par
UiTM FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pahang ↓

UiTM FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Pahang or draw
83%
Pahang or UiTM FC
80%
Draw or UiTM FC
36%

Winning margin

Pahang wins by 2+
41%
UiTM FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Pahang 1+ goals
89%
Pahang 2+ goals
64%
Pahang 3+ goals
37%
UiTM FC 1+ goals
64%
UiTM FC 2+ goals
27%
UiTM FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Pahang (draw refunded)
79%
UiTM FC (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pahang at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

UiTM FC away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pahang attack 2.15 + UiTM FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.20

UiTM FC attack 0.50 + Pahang defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Pahang scores more
64%
level
20%
UiTM FC scores more
17%

Pahang at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Pahang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pahang face UiTM FC (Malaysia Cup)

Malaysia Cup returns with Pahang hosting UiTM FC. Match starts November 12, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.