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Pahang vs Sabah FA — Malaysia Cup 2019

Pahang
Pahangadvanced
AET
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sabah FA
Sabah FA
2/2/2025Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Semi-finalsStadium Majlis Perbandaran Temerloh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Pahang46%
×Draw23%
Sabah FA31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pahang
1.77
Sabah FA
1.41

Pahang creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

creates per match

Pahang
2.15
Sabah FA
1.27

allows per match

Pahang
1.54
Sabah FA
1.40

finishing

Pahang+0.00on par
Sabah FA+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pahang ↓

Sabah FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Pahang or draw
69%
Pahang or Sabah FA
77%
Draw or Sabah FA
54%

Winning margin

Pahang wins by 2+
25%
Sabah FA wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pahang 1+ goals
83%
Pahang 2+ goals
53%
Pahang 3+ goals
26%
Sabah FA 1+ goals
76%
Sabah FA 2+ goals
41%
Sabah FA 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pahang (draw refunded)
60%
Sabah FA (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pahang at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Sabah FA away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pahang attack 2.15 + Sabah FA defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sabah FA attack 1.27 + Pahang defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pahang scores more
46%
level
23%
Sabah FA scores more
31%

Pahang at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pahang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pahang vs Sabah FA

Pahang beat Sabah FA 2-1 in Malaysia Cup on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stadium Majlis Perbandaran Temerloh in Temerloh.