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Pahang vs Melaka United — Malaysia Cup 2019

Pahang
Pahangadvanced
FT
3 – 1
Melaka United
Melaka United
9/29/2019Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Quarter-finalsStadium Darulmakmur (Kuantan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Pahang43%
×Draw22%
Melaka United35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pahang
1.85
Melaka United
1.66

Pahang creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

Pahang
2.15
Melaka United
1.78

allows per match

Pahang
1.54
Melaka United
1.56

finishing

Pahang+0.00on par
Melaka United+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pahang ↓

Melaka United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Pahang or draw
65%
Pahang or Melaka United
78%
Draw or Melaka United
57%

Winning margin

Pahang wins by 2+
23%
Melaka United wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Pahang 1+ goals
84%
Pahang 2+ goals
55%
Pahang 3+ goals
28%
Melaka United 1+ goals
81%
Melaka United 2+ goals
49%
Melaka United 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Pahang (draw refunded)
55%
Melaka United (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pahang at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Melaka United away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pahang attack 2.15 + Melaka United defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.85

Melaka United attack 1.78 + Pahang defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pahang scores more
43%
level
22%
Melaka United scores more
35%

Pahang at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pahang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malaysia Cup: Pahang 3–1 Melaka United

Pahang beat Melaka United 3-1 in Malaysia Cup on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Stadium Darulmakmur (Kuantan).