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Paganese vs Tivoli — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Paganese
Paganese
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tivoli
Tivoli
12/21/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 17Stadio Marcello Torre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Paganese52%
×Draw26%
Tivoli22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paganese
1.54
Tivoli
0.89

Paganese creates 73% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Paganese
1.50
Tivoli
1.24

allows per match

Paganese
0.53
Tivoli
1.59

finishing

Paganese+0.00on par
Tivoli+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paganese ↓

Tivoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Paganese or draw
78%
Paganese or Tivoli
74%
Draw or Tivoli
48%

Winning margin

Paganese wins by 2+
27%
Tivoli wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Paganese 1+ goals
79%
Paganese 2+ goals
45%
Paganese 3+ goals
20%
Tivoli 1+ goals
59%
Tivoli 2+ goals
22%
Tivoli 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Paganese (draw refunded)
71%
Tivoli (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paganese at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.53 · 34 matches

Tivoli away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paganese attack 1.50 + Tivoli defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.54

Tivoli attack 1.24 + Paganese defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Paganese scores more
52%
level
26%
Tivoli scores more
22%

Paganese at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Paganese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paganese vs Tivoli

Paganese beat Tivoli 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on December 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Marcello Torre in Pagani.