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Paganese vs Terracina Calcio — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Paganese
Paganese
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Terracina Calcio
Terracina Calcio
11/17/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 12Stadio Marcello Torre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Paganese64%
×Draw22%
Terracina Calcio14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paganese
1.84
Terracina Calcio
0.71

Paganese creates 159% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Paganese
1.50
Terracina Calcio
0.88

allows per match

Paganese
0.53
Terracina Calcio
2.18

finishing

Paganese+0.00on par
Terracina Calcio+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paganese ↓

Terracina Calcio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Paganese or draw
86%
Paganese or Terracina Calcio
78%
Draw or Terracina Calcio
36%

Winning margin

Paganese wins by 2+
38%
Terracina Calcio wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Paganese 1+ goals
84%
Paganese 2+ goals
55%
Paganese 3+ goals
28%
Terracina Calcio 1+ goals
51%
Terracina Calcio 2+ goals
16%
Terracina Calcio 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Paganese (draw refunded)
82%
Terracina Calcio (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paganese at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.53 · 34 matches

Terracina Calcio away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paganese attack 1.50 + Terracina Calcio defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.84

Terracina Calcio attack 0.88 + Paganese defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Paganese scores more
64%
level
22%
Terracina Calcio scores more
14%

Paganese at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Paganese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paganese vs Terracina Calcio

Paganese and Terracina Calcio drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone G on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Marcello Torre in Pagani.