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Paganese vs Sarnese — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Paganese
Paganese
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sarnese
Sarnese
A. Faella 42'
12/1/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 14Stadio Marcello Torre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Paganese42%
×Draw29%
Sarnese29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paganese
1.22
Sarnese
0.97

Paganese creates 26% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Paganese
1.50
Sarnese
1.41

allows per match

Paganese
0.53
Sarnese
0.94

finishing

Paganese+0.00on par
Sarnese+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paganese ↓

Sarnese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Paganese or draw
71%
Paganese or Sarnese
71%
Draw or Sarnese
58%

Winning margin

Paganese wins by 2+
18%
Sarnese wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Paganese 1+ goals
70%
Paganese 2+ goals
34%
Paganese 3+ goals
12%
Sarnese 1+ goals
62%
Sarnese 2+ goals
25%
Sarnese 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Paganese (draw refunded)
59%
Sarnese (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paganese at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.53 · 34 matches

Sarnese away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paganese attack 1.50 + Sarnese defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.22

Sarnese attack 1.41 + Paganese defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Paganese scores more
42%
level
29%
Sarnese scores more
29%

Paganese at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Paganese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
A. Faella

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paganese vs Sarnese

Paganese beat Sarnese 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on December 1, 2024.

Goals: A. Faella (42').

The match was played at Stadio Marcello Torre in Pagani.