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Pafos vs Othellos — 1. Division 2019

Pafos
Pafos
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Othellos
Othellos
11/25/20231. Division1. Division · Round 12Stadio Stelios Kyriakides

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Pafos58%
×Draw21%
Othellos20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pafos
2.04
Othellos
1.12

Pafos creates 82% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 20 away

creates per match

Pafos
1.82
Othellos
1.45

allows per match

Pafos
0.79
Othellos
2.25

finishing

Pafos+0.00on par
Othellos+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pafos ↓

Othellos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Pafos or draw
80%
Pafos or Othellos
79%
Draw or Othellos
42%

Winning margin

Pafos wins by 2+
35%
Othellos wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Pafos 1+ goals
87%
Pafos 2+ goals
60%
Pafos 3+ goals
33%
Othellos 1+ goals
67%
Othellos 2+ goals
31%
Othellos 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pafos (draw refunded)
74%
Othellos (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pafos at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.79 · 119 matches

Othellos away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pafos attack 1.82 + Othellos defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.04

Othellos attack 1.45 + Pafos defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Pafos scores more
58%
level
21%
Othellos scores more
20%

Pafos at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Pafos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pafos vs Othellos

Pafos beat Othellos 3-0 in 1. Division on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Stelios Kyriakides in Paphos.