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Pafos vs Nea Salamis — 1. Division 2019

Pafos
Pafos
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Nea Salamis
Nea Salamis
9/18/20241. Division1. Division · Round 1Stadio Stelios Kyriakides

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Pafos54%
×Draw24%
Nea Salamis22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pafos
1.66
Nea Salamis
0.95

Pafos creates 75% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 88 away

creates per match

Pafos
1.82
Nea Salamis
1.11

allows per match

Pafos
0.79
Nea Salamis
1.50

finishing

Pafos+0.00on par
Nea Salamis+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pafos ↓

Nea Salamis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pafos or draw
78%
Pafos or Nea Salamis
76%
Draw or Nea Salamis
46%

Winning margin

Pafos wins by 2+
29%
Nea Salamis wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pafos 1+ goals
81%
Pafos 2+ goals
49%
Pafos 3+ goals
23%
Nea Salamis 1+ goals
61%
Nea Salamis 2+ goals
25%
Nea Salamis 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pafos (draw refunded)
71%
Nea Salamis (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pafos at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.79 · 119 matches

Nea Salamis away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.50 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pafos attack 1.82 + Nea Salamis defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.66

Nea Salamis attack 1.11 + Pafos defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Pafos scores more
54%
level
24%
Nea Salamis scores more
22%

Pafos at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Pafos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pafos vs Nea Salamis

Pafos beat Nea Salamis 4-0 in 1. Division on September 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Stelios Kyriakides in Paphos.