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Pafos vs Karmiotissa — 1. Division 2019

Pafos
Pafos
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Karmiotissa
Karmiotissa
10/19/20241. Division1. Division · Round 7Stadio Stelios Kyriakides

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Pafos62%
×Draw22%
Karmiotissa17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pafos
1.92
Karmiotissa
0.88

Pafos creates 118% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 76 away

creates per match

Pafos
1.82
Karmiotissa
0.96

allows per match

Pafos
0.79
Karmiotissa
2.01

finishing

Pafos+0.00on par
Karmiotissa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pafos ↓

Karmiotissa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Pafos or draw
83%
Pafos or Karmiotissa
78%
Draw or Karmiotissa
38%

Winning margin

Pafos wins by 2+
37%
Karmiotissa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Pafos 1+ goals
85%
Pafos 2+ goals
57%
Pafos 3+ goals
30%
Karmiotissa 1+ goals
59%
Karmiotissa 2+ goals
22%
Karmiotissa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Pafos (draw refunded)
79%
Karmiotissa (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pafos at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.79 · 119 matches

Karmiotissa away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.01 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pafos attack 1.82 + Karmiotissa defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.92

Karmiotissa attack 0.96 + Pafos defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Pafos scores more
62%
level
22%
Karmiotissa scores more
17%

Pafos at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Pafos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pafos vs Karmiotissa

Pafos beat Karmiotissa 4-0 in 1. Division on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Stelios Kyriakides in Paphos.