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Pafos vs Aris — 1. Division 2025

Pafos
Pafos
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Aris
Aris
J. Correia 67', 22'
C. Goldson 20'
11/21/20251. Division1. Division · Round 11Stelios Kyriakides Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Pafos55%
×Draw24%
Aris21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pafos
1.72
Aris
0.96

Pafos creates 79% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

creates per match

Pafos
2.10
Aris
1.11

allows per match

Pafos
0.80
Aris
1.33

finishing

Pafos+0.00on par
Aris+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pafos ↓

Aris →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Pafos or draw
79%
Pafos or Aris
76%
Draw or Aris
45%

Winning margin

Pafos wins by 2+
31%
Aris wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pafos 1+ goals
82%
Pafos 2+ goals
51%
Pafos 3+ goals
25%
Aris 1+ goals
62%
Aris 2+ goals
25%
Aris 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pafos (draw refunded)
72%
Aris (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pafos at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Aris away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pafos attack 2.10 + Aris defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.72

Aris attack 1.11 + Pafos defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Pafos scores more
55%
level
24%
Aris scores more
21%

Pafos at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Pafos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77
J. CorreiaPafosPafos · D
8.0

Match Events

20'
C. Goldson
22'
J. Correia
26'
Alex Moucketou-Moussounda
39'
Domingos Quina
43'
Ivan Šunjić
46'
G. Kvilitaia← Y. Gomis
59'
W. Odefalk← D. Quina
59'
Anderson Silva← L. Dimata
60'
J. Montnor← D. Gaustad
67'
J. Correia
72'
Charalampos Charalampous
72'
B. Langa← J. Correia
77'
S. Yago← L. Balogun
77'
V. Kovalenko← A. Moucketou-Moussounda
81'
R. Effaghe← M. Mayambela

Possession

54%Pafos

Shots

10Pafos

Pass accuracy

52%Pafos

Statistics

PafosAris
Overview
54%Possession46%
10Total Shots6
1.03Expected Goals (xG)0.78
5Corners4
16Fouls7
Shots
10Total Shots6
4On Target4
1Off Target0
4Blocked1
8Inside Box3
2Outside Box3
Passing
54%Possession46%
380Total Passes305
304Accurate Passes226
80%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls7
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
2Offsides0

1. Division: Pafos 2–1 Aris

Pafos beat Aris 2-1 in 1. Division on November 21, 2025.

Goals: C. Goldson (20'), J. Correia (22', 67').

Pafos controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stelios Kyriakides Stadium in Pafos.