Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pafos vs Aris — 1. Division 2019

Pafos
Pafos
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aris
Aris
3/16/20241. Division1. Division · Championship Round - 4Stadio Stelios Kyriakides

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Pafos44%
×Draw26%
Aris30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pafos
1.46
Aris
1.16

Pafos creates 26% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 88 away

creates per match

Pafos
1.82
Aris
1.52

allows per match

Pafos
0.79
Aris
1.10

finishing

Pafos+0.00on par
Aris+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pafos ↓

Aris →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pafos or draw
70%
Pafos or Aris
74%
Draw or Aris
56%

Winning margin

Pafos wins by 2+
21%
Aris wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pafos 1+ goals
77%
Pafos 2+ goals
43%
Pafos 3+ goals
18%
Aris 1+ goals
69%
Aris 2+ goals
32%
Aris 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pafos (draw refunded)
59%
Aris (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pafos at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.79 · 119 matches

Aris away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.10 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pafos attack 1.82 + Aris defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.46

Aris attack 1.52 + Pafos defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pafos scores more
44%
level
26%
Aris scores more
30%

Pafos at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pafos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pafos vs Aris

Pafos beat Aris 1-0 in 1. Division on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Stelios Kyriakides in Paphos.