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Pafos vs AEL — 1. Division 2019

Pafos
Pafos
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
AEL
AEL
1/6/20251. Division1. Division · Round 17Stadio Stelios Kyriakides

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Pafos54%
×Draw25%
AEL21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pafos
1.63
AEL
0.91

Pafos creates 79% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 117 away

creates per match

Pafos
1.82
AEL
1.03

allows per match

Pafos
0.79
AEL
1.44

finishing

Pafos+0.00on par
AEL+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pafos ↓

AEL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pafos or draw
79%
Pafos or AEL
75%
Draw or AEL
46%

Winning margin

Pafos wins by 2+
29%
AEL wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pafos 1+ goals
80%
Pafos 2+ goals
48%
Pafos 3+ goals
22%
AEL 1+ goals
60%
AEL 2+ goals
23%
AEL 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Pafos (draw refunded)
72%
AEL (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pafos at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.79 · 119 matches

AEL away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.44 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pafos attack 1.82 + AEL defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.63

AEL attack 1.03 + Pafos defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Pafos scores more
54%
level
25%
AEL scores more
21%

Pafos at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Pafos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pafos vs AEL

Pafos beat AEL 4-0 in 1. Division on January 6, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Stelios Kyriakides in Paphos.