Pafos U19 0–3 Monaco U19: Result & Stats

Pafos U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Monaco U19

Y. Dodo 89'

J. Tincres 79'

O. Konate 16'

11/26/2025

UEFA Youth League · League Stage - 5Stelios Kyriakides Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pafos U1911%

×Draw18%

Monaco U1971%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pafos U19Expected goals in this matchMonaco U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.75

2.25

Pafos U19

0.75

Monaco U19

2.25

Monaco U19 creates 200% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

0.00

creates per match

2.25

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Pafos U19

0.00

Monaco U19

2.25

allows per match

Pafos U19

2.25

Monaco U19

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pafos U19+0.00on par

Monaco U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pafos U19 ↓

Monaco U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–111%

0–213%

0–310%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Pafos U19 or draw

29%

Pafos U19 or Monaco U19

82%

Draw or Monaco U19

89%

Winning margin

Pafos U19 wins by 2+

3%

Monaco U19 wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

Pafos U19 1+ goals

53%

Pafos U19 2+ goals

17%

Pafos U19 3+ goals

4%

Monaco U19 1+ goals

89%

Monaco U19 2+ goals

65%

Monaco U19 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Pafos U19 (draw refunded)

13%

Monaco U19 (draw refunded)

87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pafos U19 at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Monaco U19 away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pafos U19 attack 0.00 + Monaco U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Monaco U19 attack 2.25 + Pafos U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Pafos U19 scores more

11%

level

18%

Monaco U19 scores more

71%

Monaco U19 at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Monaco U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

P. Tsivikos

16'

O. Konate↳ I. Toure

46'

K. Moulangou← A. Zoukrou

49'

J. Tincres

51'

I. Toure

60'

P. Kyprianou← A. Christoforou

63'

N. Ajroud← E. Chukwuani

66'

P. Cabral

66'

M. Drame

69'

S. Theodorou← K. Jovovic

76'

P. Charalampous

79'

J. Tincres↳ N. Ajroud

83'

C. Badoro← I. Toure

83'

Y. Dodo← O. Konate

87'

R. Piazenko← J. Tincres

89'

Y. Dodo↳ K. Moulangou

90+1'

G. Hadjimitsis← D. Terrones

Pafos

Monaco

1

Stawiecki

2

A

▼

Toure

4

Leunga

5

Drame

3

▼

10

6

8

11

⚽

▼

Konate

9

⚽

▼

Tincres

21

▼

99

2

3

22

20

24

17

70

▼

Christofo

19

Tsivikos

27

▼

Terrones

21

▼

Jovovic

Manager: C. Anastasiou

60'▲P. Kyprianou←▼A. Christoforou

69'▲S. Theodorou←▼K. Jovovic

90+1'▲G. Hadjimitsis←▼D. Terrones

Pafos U19 substitutes

1Theodoulou5Zachariou12Kolotas15Kyprianou41Prodromou44Neofytou47Theodorou51Georgioiu77Hadjimitsis

Manager: Djimi Traoré

46'▲K. Moulangou←▼A. Zoukrou

63'▲N. Ajroud←▼E. Chukwuani

83'▲C. Badoro←▼I. Toure

83'▲Y. Dodo←▼O. Konate

87'▲R. Piazenko←▼J. Tincres

Monaco U19 substitutes

16Lubaki7Ajroud12Bein13Ouaroudi14Badoro15Moulangou17Dodo18Piazenko19Mouh

UEFA Youth League: Pafos U19 0–3 Monaco U19

Monaco U19 beat Pafos U19 3-0 in UEFA Youth League on November 26, 2025.

Goals: O. Konate (16'), J. Tincres (79'), Y. Dodo (89').

The match was played at Stelios Kyriakides Stadium in Pafos.

Pafos U19 vs Monaco U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Pafos U19 0–3 Monaco U19