Pafos U19 0–3 Bayern München U19: Result & Stats

Pafos U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Bayern München U19

G. Della Rovere 79', 34'

A. Licina 75'

9/30/2025

UEFA Youth League · League Stage - 2Stelios Kyriakides Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pafos U1916%

×Draw21%

Bayern München U1964%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pafos U19Expected goals in this matchBayern München U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

2.02

Pafos U19

0.88

Bayern München U19

2.02

Bayern München U19 creates 130% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 20 away

0.00

creates per match

1.80

2.25

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Pafos U19

0.00

Bayern München U19

1.80

allows per match

Pafos U19

2.25

Bayern München U19

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pafos U19+0.00on par

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pafos U19 ↓

Bayern München U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–211%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Pafos U19 or draw

36%

Pafos U19 or Bayern München U19

79%

Draw or Bayern München U19

84%

Winning margin

Pafos U19 wins by 2+

5%

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Pafos U19 1+ goals

59%

Pafos U19 2+ goals

22%

Pafos U19 3+ goals

6%

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

87%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

60%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Pafos U19 (draw refunded)

20%

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pafos U19 at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Bayern München U19 away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pafos U19 attack 0.00 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Bayern München U19 attack 1.80 + Pafos U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Pafos U19 scores more

16%

level

21%

Bayern München U19 scores more

64%

Bayern München U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Bayern München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

G. Della Rovere↳ T. Binder

45'

D. Terrones

46'

J. Nasrawe← F. Chavez

58'

P. Siderenios

65'

M. Cardozo← T. Binder

73'

D. Karypidis← A. Christoforou

73'

P. Papastylianou← P. Tsivikos

75'

A. Licina↳ J. Nasrawe

77'

I. Ignatiadis

79'

R. Snip← M. Gottlicher

79'

Y. Gashi← G. Della Rovere

79'

G. Della Rovere↳ A. Licina

84'

A. Licina

85'

C. Christofi← D. Terrones

85'

M. Dalpiaz← C. Kiala

90+4'

K. Ioannou

Pafos

Bayern

1

Prescott

2

Wijks

4

▼

Kiala

5

Pavlic

3

Ofli

8

▼

Gottliche

6

Daiber

10

▼

Chavez

7

⚽A

Licina

9

⚽2

▼

Rovere

11

A

▼

99

20

22

3

29

19

▼

6

14

17

70

▼

Christofo

27

▼

Terrones

Manager: C. Anastasiou

73'▲D. Karypidis←▼A. Christoforou

73'▲P. Papastylianou←▼P. Tsivikos

85'▲C. Christofi←▼D. Terrones

Pafos U19 substitutes

23Tapakoudis5Zachariou24Karypidis26Papastylianou32Christofi41Prodromou42Kappos44Neofytou88Porter

Manager: Peter Gaydarov

46'▲J. Nasrawe←▼F. Chavez

65'▲M. Cardozo←▼T. Binder

79'▲R. Snip←▼M. Gottlicher

79'▲Y. Gashi←▼G. Della Rovere

85'▲M. Dalpiaz←▼C. Kiala

Bayern München U19 substitutes

18Ruland12Dalpiaz13Schafer14Lambe15Snip16Nasrawe17Cardozo19Gashi20Codjo-Evora

Match Recap: Pafos U19 vs Bayern München U19

Bayern München U19 beat Pafos U19 3-0 in UEFA Youth League on September 30, 2025.

Goals: G. Della Rovere (34', 79'), A. Licina (75').

The match was played at Stelios Kyriakides Stadium in Pafos.

Pafos U19 vs Bayern München U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Pafos U19 vs Bayern München U19