Padura 2–0 Aurrerá Vitoria: Result & Stats

Padura

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Aurrerá Vitoria

3/4/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 23Estadio Santo Cristo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Padura47%

×Draw27%

Aurrerá Vitoria25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PaduraExpected goals in this matchAurrerá Vitoria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.93

Padura

1.38

Aurrerá Vitoria

0.93

Padura creates 48% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 32 away

0.98

creates per match

0.81

1.04

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Padura

0.98

Aurrerá Vitoria

0.81

allows per match

Padura

1.04

Aurrerá Vitoria

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Padura+0.00on par

Aurrerá Vitoria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padura ↓

Aurrerá Vitoria →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Padura or draw

75%

Padura or Aurrerá Vitoria

73%

Draw or Aurrerá Vitoria

53%

Winning margin

Padura wins by 2+

23%

Aurrerá Vitoria wins by 2+

Team goals

Padura 1+ goals

75%

Padura 2+ goals

40%

Padura 3+ goals

16%

Aurrerá Vitoria 1+ goals

61%

Aurrerá Vitoria 2+ goals

24%

Aurrerá Vitoria 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Padura (draw refunded)

65%

Aurrerá Vitoria (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Padura at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.04 · 49 matches

Aurrerá Vitoria away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Padura attack 0.98 + Aurrerá Vitoria defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.38

Aurrerá Vitoria attack 0.81 + Padura defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Padura scores more

47%

level

27%

Aurrerá Vitoria scores more

25%

Padura at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Padura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff