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Padura vs Aurrerá Ondarroa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Padura
Padura
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Aurrerá Ondarroa
Aurrerá Ondarroa
10/15/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 6Estadio Santo Cristo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Padura44%
×Draw28%
Aurrerá Ondarroa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padura
1.31
Aurrerá Ondarroa
0.98

Padura creates 34% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 66 away

creates per match

Padura
0.98
Aurrerá Ondarroa
0.92

allows per match

Padura
1.04
Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.65

finishing

Padura+0.00on par
Aurrerá Ondarroa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padura ↓

Aurrerá Ondarroa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Padura or draw
72%
Padura or Aurrerá Ondarroa
72%
Draw or Aurrerá Ondarroa
56%

Winning margin

Padura wins by 2+
20%
Aurrerá Ondarroa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Padura 1+ goals
73%
Padura 2+ goals
38%
Padura 3+ goals
14%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 1+ goals
62%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 2+ goals
26%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Padura (draw refunded)
61%
Aurrerá Ondarroa (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padura at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.04 · 49 matches

Aurrerá Ondarroa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padura attack 0.98 + Aurrerá Ondarroa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.31

Aurrerá Ondarroa attack 0.92 + Padura defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Padura scores more
44%
level
28%
Aurrerá Ondarroa scores more
28%

Padura at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Padura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Padura vs Aurrerá Ondarroa

Padura beat Aurrerá Ondarroa 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Santo Cristo in Arrigorriaga.