Padova 2–1 Virtus Entella: Result & Stats | Serie B

Padova

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Virtus Entella

J. Harder 74'

M. Bortolussi 52' (pen)

N. Karic 45'

9/21/2025

Serie B · Round 4Stadio Euganeo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Padova37%

×Draw27%

Virtus Entella36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PadovaExpected goals in this matchVirtus Entella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.21

Padova

1.22

Virtus Entella

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

1.03

creates per match

0.84

1.58

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Padova

1.03

Virtus Entella

0.84

allows per match

Padova

1.58

Virtus Entella

1.41

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

Padova-0.03on par

Virtus Entella-0.44scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova ↓

Virtus Entella →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Padova or draw

64%

Padova or Virtus Entella

73%

Draw or Virtus Entella

63%

Winning margin

Padova wins by 2+

16%

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Padova 1+ goals

70%

Padova 2+ goals

34%

Padova 3+ goals

12%

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

70%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

34%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Padova (draw refunded)

50%

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.58 · 8 matches

Virtus Entella away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.41 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova attack 1.03 + Virtus Entella defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.22

Virtus Entella attack 0.84 + Padova defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Padova scores more

37%

level

27%

Virtus Entella scores more

36%

Padova at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Padova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44

J. Harder

Padova · M

7.9

Match Events

11'

Andrea Franzoni

45+5'

Mattia BortolussiGoal cancelled

45'

N. Karic↳ S. Di Mario

46'

Andrea Tiritiello

50'

Filippo SgarbiPenalty confirmed

51'

Davide Bariti

51'

Andrea Tiritiello

51'

Andrea Tiritiello

52'

M. BortolussiPenalty

54'

B. Guiu← N. Karic

55'

L. Moretti← T. Fumagalli

55'

F. Mezzoni← D. Bariti

62'

J. Silva← L. Crisetig

70'

J. Harder← P. Fusi

74'

J. Harder↳ A. Capelli

75'

D. Ankeye← A. Debenedetti

81'

G. Favale← A. Barreca

81'

L. Villa← A. Capelli

84'

M. Dalla Vecchia← I. Marconi

89'

Stefano Di Mario

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PadovaVirtus

Overview

59%Possession41%

10Total Shots11

5Corners8

16Fouls19

Shots

10Total Shots11

5On Target3

3Off Target7

2Blocked1

5Inside Box9

5Outside Box2

Passing

59%Possession41%

424Total Passes287

364Accurate Passes241

86%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls19

0Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

4Offsides4

Match Recap: Padova vs Virtus Entella

Padova beat Virtus Entella 2-1 in Serie B on September 21, 2025.

Goals: N. Karic (45'), M. Bortolussi (52' pen), J. Harder (74').

Padova controlled possession (59%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Euganeo in Padova.

Padova vs Virtus Entella — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Padova vs Virtus Entella