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Padova vs Sampdoria — Serie B 2018

Padova
Padova
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sampdoria
Sampdoria
12/20/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 17Stadio Euganeo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Padova40%
×Draw28%
Sampdoria32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padova
1.24
Sampdoria
1.07

Padova creates 16% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 58 away

creates per match

Padova
0.95
Sampdoria
1.14

allows per match

Padova
1.00
Sampdoria
1.53

finishing

Padova+0.00on par
Sampdoria+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova ↓

Sampdoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Padova or draw
68%
Padova or Sampdoria
72%
Draw or Sampdoria
60%

Winning margin

Padova wins by 2+
18%
Sampdoria wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Padova 1+ goals
71%
Padova 2+ goals
35%
Padova 3+ goals
13%
Sampdoria 1+ goals
66%
Sampdoria 2+ goals
29%
Sampdoria 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Padova (draw refunded)
56%
Sampdoria (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

Sampdoria away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.53 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova attack 0.95 + Sampdoria defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.24

Sampdoria attack 1.14 + Padova defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Padova scores more
40%
level
28%
Sampdoria scores more
32%

Padova at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Padova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Padova vs Sampdoria

Padova and Sampdoria drew 1-1 in Serie B on December 20, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Euganeo in Padova.