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Padova vs Reggiana — Serie B 2018

Padova
Padova
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Reggiana
Reggiana
A. Seghetti 80'
4/19/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 35Stadio Euganeo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Padova43%
×Draw29%
Reggiana29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padova
1.25
Reggiana
0.97

Padova creates 29% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 76 away

creates per match

Padova
0.97
Reggiana
0.91

allows per match

Padova
1.03
Reggiana
1.53

finishing

Padova+0.00on par
Reggiana+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova ↓

Reggiana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Padova or draw
71%
Padova or Reggiana
71%
Draw or Reggiana
57%

Winning margin

Padova wins by 2+
19%
Reggiana wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Padova 1+ goals
71%
Padova 2+ goals
36%
Padova 3+ goals
13%
Reggiana 1+ goals
62%
Reggiana 2+ goals
25%
Reggiana 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Padova (draw refunded)
60%
Reggiana (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.03 · 36 matches

Reggiana away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.53 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova attack 0.97 + Reggiana defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.25

Reggiana attack 0.91 + Padova defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Padova scores more
43%
level
29%
Reggiana scores more
29%

Padova at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Padova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

58
C. PastinaPadovaPadova · D
7.9

Match Events

24'
Tobías Reinhart
46'
M. Rover← K. Bozhanaj
50'
Simone Bonetti
56'
A. Tripaldelli← S. Bonetti
68'
G. Caprari← F. Di Mariano
68'
L. Di Maggio← P. Fusi
73'
A. Novakovich← C. Gondo
77'
A. Seghetti← M. Bortolussi
77'
J. Silva← K. Varas
80'
A. Seghetti↳ G. Caprari
81'
T. Fumagalli← M. Lambourde
81'
Charlys← M. Bertagnoli

Possession

56%Padova

Shots

10Padova

Pass accuracy

52%Padova

Statistics

PadovaReggiana
Overview
56%Possession44%
10Total Shots12
1.38Expected Goals (xG)1.08
5Corners2
16Fouls19
Shots
10Total Shots12
2On Target3
5Off Target7
3Blocked2
5Inside Box3
5Outside Box9
Passing
56%Possession44%
438Total Passes333
353Accurate Passes245
81%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
0.01Goals Prevented0.01
Discipline
16Fouls19
0Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Serie B: Padova 1–0 Reggiana

Padova beat Reggiana 1-0 in Serie B on April 19, 2026.

Goals: A. Seghetti (80').

Padova controlled possession (56%) and registered 10 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Euganeo in Padova.