Padova 0–1 Perugia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Padova

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Perugia

Han Kwang-Song 18'

3/16/2019

Serie B · Round 29Stadio Euganeo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Padova37%

×Draw29%

Perugia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PadovaExpected goals in this matchPerugia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.08

Padova

1.14

Perugia

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 77 away

0.97

creates per match

1.12

1.03

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Padova

0.97

Perugia

1.12

allows per match

Padova

1.03

Perugia

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Padova+0.00on par

Perugia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova ↓

Perugia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Padova or draw

66%

Padova or Perugia

71%

Draw or Perugia

63%

Winning margin

Padova wins by 2+

15%

Perugia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Padova 1+ goals

68%

Padova 2+ goals

32%

Padova 3+ goals

11%

Perugia 1+ goals

66%

Perugia 2+ goals

29%

Perugia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Padova (draw refunded)

52%

Perugia (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.03 · 36 matches

Perugia away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.31 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova attack 0.97 + Perugia defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.14

Perugia attack 1.12 + Padova defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Padova scores more

37%

level

29%

Perugia scores more

34%

Padova at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Padova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Han Kwang-Song

21'

Norbert Gyömbér

31'

Yves Baraye

46'

D. Marcandella← S. Calvano

46'

K. Michael← M. Falzerano

46'

48'

57'

62'

74'

74'

80'

L. Clemenza← F. Bonazzoli

85'

C. Kouan← Han Kwang-Song

87'

Christian Kouan

Possession

Shots

Statistics

PadovaPerugia

Overview

38%Possession62%

8Total Shots8

7Corners1

14Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots8

0On Target3

8Off Target5

Passing

38%Possession62%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls14

2Yellow Cards5