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Padova vs Palermo — Serie B 2018

Padova
Padova
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Palermo
Palermo
M. Bani 90'
3/21/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 32Stadio Euganeo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Padova30%
×Draw26%
Palermo44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padova
1.20
Palermo
1.50

Palermo creates 25% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

creates per match

Padova
0.97
Palermo
1.45

allows per match

Padova
1.56
Palermo
1.43

finishing

Padova+0.03on par
Palermo-0.25scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova ↓

Palermo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Padova or draw
56%
Padova or Palermo
74%
Draw or Palermo
70%

Winning margin

Padova wins by 2+
13%
Palermo wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Padova 1+ goals
70%
Padova 2+ goals
34%
Padova 3+ goals
12%
Palermo 1+ goals
78%
Palermo 2+ goals
44%
Palermo 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Padova (draw refunded)
41%
Palermo (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.56 · 7 matches

Palermo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova attack 0.97 + Palermo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.20

Palermo attack 1.45 + Padova defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Padova scores more
30%
level
26%
Palermo scores more
44%

Palermo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Palermo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
M. BaniPalermoPalermo · D
8.3

Match Events

24'
Rui ModestoCard upgrade
25'
Rui Modesto
46'
P. Peda← A. Palumbo
48'
Pietro Ceccaroni
54'
G. Magnani← P. Ceccaroni
58'
Papu Gomez← P. Fusi
59'
Francesco Di Mariano
64'
G. Caprari← M. Bortolussi
64'
J. Le Douaron← J. Pohjanpalo
64'
S. Giovane← J. Segre
65'
G. Favale← P. Ghiglione
78'
A. Vasic← D. Johnsen
80'
C. Buonaiuto← F. Belli
90+6'
Christian Pastina
90'
Christian Pastina
90+6'
Christian Pastina
90'
M. Bani↳ P. Peda

Possession

66%Padova

Shots

14Padova

Pass accuracy

53%Padova

Statistics

PadovaPalermo
Overview
66%Possession34%
14Total Shots11
1.59Expected Goals (xG)1.32
9Corners4
10Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots11
2On Target1
6Off Target4
6Blocked6
8Inside Box9
6Outside Box2
Passing
66%Possession34%
513Total Passes266
437Accurate Passes199
85%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
0.33Goals Prevented0.33
Discipline
10Fouls12
3Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards1
5Offsides1

Match Recap: Padova vs Palermo

Palermo beat Padova 1-0 in Serie B on March 21, 2026.

Goals: M. Bani (90').

Padova controlled possession (66%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Euganeo in Padova.