Padova 1–3 Palermo: Result & Stats | Serie B

Padova

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Palermo

F. Bonazzoli 30'

I. Nestorovski 70'

S. Rajković 68'

A. Trajkovski 43'

12/8/2018

Serie B · Round 15Stadio Euganeo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Padova32%

×Draw25%

Palermo42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PadovaExpected goals in this matchPalermo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.48

Padova

1.25

Palermo

1.48

Palermo creates 18% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

1.08

creates per match

1.45

1.51

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Padova

1.08

Palermo

1.45

allows per match

Padova

1.51

Palermo

1.43

-0.08on par

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Padova-0.08on par

Palermo-0.25scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova ↓

Palermo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Padova or draw

58%

Padova or Palermo

75%

Draw or Palermo

68%

Winning margin

Padova wins by 2+

14%

Palermo wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Padova 1+ goals

71%

Padova 2+ goals

36%

Padova 3+ goals

13%

Palermo 1+ goals

77%

Palermo 2+ goals

43%

Palermo 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Padova (draw refunded)

43%

Palermo (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.51 · 11 matches

Palermo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova attack 1.08 + Palermo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Palermo attack 1.45 + Padova defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Padova scores more

32%

level

25%

Palermo scores more

42%

Palermo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Palermo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

F. Bonazzoli↳ S. Contessa

39'

Luca Clemenza

43'

A. Trajkovski↳ I. Nestorovski

45'

Daniel Cappelletti

63'

F. Della Rocca← G. Pinzi

65'

Nicolas Haas

67'

Stefano Moreo

68'

S. Rajković↳ S. Moreo

70'

I. Nestorovski↳ S. Moreo

72'

Przemysław Szymiński

74'

M. Minesso← L. Clemenza

76'

G. Puşcaş← I. Nestorovski

81'

M. Chinellato← F. Bonazzoli

83'

R. Murawski← S. Moreo

90'

Luca Belingheri

90+1'

A. Fiordilino← C. Falletti

Possession

Shots

Statistics

PadovaPalermo

Overview

43%Possession57%

12Total Shots5

4Corners6

21Fouls19

Shots

12Total Shots5

5On Target4

7Off Target1

Passing

43%Possession57%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

21Fouls19

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides5