Padova 1–2 Mantova: Result & Stats | Serie B

Padova

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Mantova

K. Lasagna 81'

D. Mensah 66', 32'

1/17/2026

Serie B · Round 20Stadio Euganeo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Padova35%

×Draw25%

Mantova39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PadovaExpected goals in this matchMantova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.47

Padova

1.38

Mantova

1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

1.03

creates per match

1.36

1.58

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Padova

1.03

Mantova

1.36

allows per match

Padova

1.58

Mantova

1.73

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Padova-0.03on par

Mantova-0.06on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova ↓

Mantova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Padova or draw

61%

Padova or Mantova

75%

Draw or Mantova

65%

Winning margin

Padova wins by 2+

16%

Mantova wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Padova 1+ goals

75%

Padova 2+ goals

40%

Padova 3+ goals

16%

Mantova 1+ goals

77%

Mantova 2+ goals

43%

Mantova 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Padova (draw refunded)

47%

Mantova (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.58 · 8 matches

Mantova away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.73 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova attack 1.03 + Mantova defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.38

Mantova attack 1.36 + Padova defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Padova scores more

35%

level

25%

Mantova scores more

39%

Mantova at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mantova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

D. Mensah

Mantova · F

8.3

Match Events

32'

D. Mensah↳ N. Radaelli

36'

Stefano Cella

37'

Filippo Sgarbi

46'

K. Lasagna← P. Ghiglione

46'

J. Silva← L. Crisetig

46'

L. Villa← M. Perrotta

49'

62'

63'

63'

66'

D. Mensah↳ S. Trimboli

70'

C. Buonaiuto← P. Fusi

70'

L. Mancuso← D. Mensah

77'

Kevin Varas Marcillo

81'

K. Lasagna↳ A. Capelli

90+3'

Alessandro Sorrentino

90+5'

Cristiano Bani

90+2'

C. Bianay Balcot← N. Radaelli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PadovaMantova

Overview

58%Possession42%

20Total Shots16

1.49Expected Goals (xG)1.70

6Corners2

14Fouls20

Shots

20Total Shots16

7On Target5

7Off Target9

6Blocked2

13Inside Box9

7Outside Box7

Passing

58%Possession42%

469Total Passes346

381Accurate Passes275

81%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls20

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2

Serie B: Padova 1–2 Mantova

Mantova beat Padova 2-1 in Serie B on January 17, 2026.

Goals: D. Mensah (32', 66'), K. Lasagna (81').

Padova controlled possession (58%) and registered 20 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stadio Euganeo in Padova.

Padova vs Mantova — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Padova 1–2 Mantova