Padova 1–1 Livorno: Result & Stats | Serie B

Padova

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Livorno

5/11/2019

Serie B · Round 38Stadio Euganeo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Padova44%

×Draw29%

Livorno27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PadovaExpected goals in this matchLivorno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.92

Padova

1.26

Livorno

0.92

Padova creates 37% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 37 away

0.95

creates per match

0.84

1.00

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Padova

0.95

Livorno

0.84

allows per match

Padova

1.00

Livorno

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Padova+0.00on par

Livorno+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova ↓

Livorno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Padova or draw

73%

Padova or Livorno

71%

Draw or Livorno

56%

Winning margin

Padova wins by 2+

20%

Livorno wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Padova 1+ goals

72%

Padova 2+ goals

36%

Padova 3+ goals

13%

Livorno 1+ goals

60%

Livorno 2+ goals

23%

Livorno 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Padova (draw refunded)

62%

Livorno (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

Livorno away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova attack 0.95 + Livorno defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.26

Livorno attack 0.84 + Padova defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Padova scores more

44%

level

29%

Livorno scores more

27%

Padova at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Padova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff