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Padova vs Lecce — Serie B 2018

Padova
Padova
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lecce
Lecce
D. Cappelletti 56'
Y. Baraye 3'
M. Mancosu 74' (pen)
5/1/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 36Stadio Euganeo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Padova32%
×Draw28%
Lecce40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padova
1.08
Lecce
1.24

Lecce creates 15% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 55 away

creates per match

Padova
0.97
Lecce
1.45

allows per match

Padova
1.03
Lecce
1.20

finishing

Padova+0.00on par
Lecce+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova ↓

Lecce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Padova or draw
60%
Padova or Lecce
72%
Draw or Lecce
68%

Winning margin

Padova wins by 2+
13%
Lecce wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Padova 1+ goals
66%
Padova 2+ goals
29%
Padova 3+ goals
10%
Lecce 1+ goals
71%
Lecce 2+ goals
35%
Lecce 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Padova (draw refunded)
45%
Lecce (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.03 · 36 matches

Lecce away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova attack 0.97 + Lecce defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.08

Lecce attack 1.45 + Padova defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Padova scores more
32%
level
28%
Lecce scores more
40%

Lecce at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lecce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
Y. Baraye↳ A. Longhi
12'
Nico Pulzetti
23'
Davide Mazzocco
43'
Antonio Marino
46'
S. Palombi← J. Petriccione
46'
C. Bovo← A. Marino
50'
Cesare Bovo
56'
D. Cappelletti↳ R. Serena
65'
Yves Baraye
67'
A. Capello← F. Bonazzoli
67'
T. Haye← A. Tabanelli
74'
Stefano Minelli
74'
M. MancosuPenalty
75'
Marco Mancosu
82'
P. Ceccaroni← A. Longhi
89'
A. Cocco← D. Mazzocco
90'
Alessandro Capello

Possession

39%Padova

Shots

7Padova

Statistics

PadovaLecce
Overview
39%Possession61%
7Total Shots6
4Corners6
16Fouls17
Shots
7Total Shots6
4On Target2
3Off Target4
Passing
39%Possession61%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls17
5Yellow Cards3
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Padova vs Lecce

Padova beat Lecce 2-1 in Serie B on May 1, 2019.

Goals: Y. Baraye (3'), D. Cappelletti (56'), M. Mancosu (74' pen).

Lecce controlled possession (61%) and registered 6 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadio Euganeo in Padova.